From proprietary to open: smarter disaster forecasting with geospatial tools.
11-04, 16:30–17:00 (America/New_York), Lake Thoreau

Discover how emergency agencies can move from proprietary platforms like ESRI to open-source tools to build smarter, leaner disaster forecasts—grounded in real-world data, tailored to operations, and designed for impact. Practical, scalable, and ready for action.


Disaster forecasting has traditionally depended on complex, one-size-fits-all models. But just as medicine has evolved toward personalized care, there's a growing movement to customize forecasting tools to the specific needs of emergency response agencies. By leveraging historical geospatial data, uncovering key spatial-temporal patterns, and focusing on real-world decision-making, agencies can build lightweight, scalable forecasting models that are both practical and impactful.

This talk shares how these methods were first developed using ESRI's powerful geospatial platform and then transitioned to free and open-source software (FOSS) tools. We’ll explore what’s gained—and what’s challenged—when moving from proprietary to open: from cost savings and flexibility to integration hurdles and support trade-offs. Whether you're working in disaster response, urban planning, or public safety, you'll come away with actionable insights on building smarter, mission-driven forecasting systems that fit your agency’s unique needs.

Aaron Kelley is a geospatial open-source advocate, speaker, and President of UpSlope Advisors, a mission-first engineering firm serving federal agencies with innovative GEOINT and IT solutions. With nearly two decades of experience supporting the Department of Defense and the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA), Aaron has led initiatives in outreach, training, and product management—most notably as the NGA QGIS Program Manager, where he helped grow adoption 10x.

A Certified GEOINT Professional and PMP, Aaron champions the use of FOSS tools like QGIS and GeoServer in mission-critical environments. He serves on several geospatial working groups, including OSM US Government, OGC, and the USGIF Diversity & Inclusion Working Group (as co-chair). His career reflects a deep commitment to empowering government users with open, flexible, and community-driven geospatial solutions.

When he’s not advancing open-source GEOINT, Aaron is a proud husband, father of two, and competitive triathlete. He holds degrees in Electrical Engineering from Morgan State University and Michigan State University.