Geodaysit 2023

Francesco Niccolò Polinelli


Future estimation of soil erosion, in Dudh Koshi basin (Nepal)
Francesco Niccolò Polinelli, Marco Gianinetto

Erosion is a major environmental threat that has a negative impact on agriculture and ecosystems. In the region of Dudh Koshi, in Nepal, soil erosion is taking place at a high rate, causing a serious concern for the fertility of agricultural lands. This region of Nepal relies on a subsistence farming system, therefore a reduction in the fertility of lands could cause a threat to the food security of the population inhabiting this mountain area. Some study have been conducted in order to estimate the rate of soil erosion, for this area of the world, in the present and recently passed decades, but the study proposed in this works aims at estimating the future trends of soil erosion rates, until 2100, in order to detect the values of increment in soil loss and the areas that will face the worst cases. To achieve this goal the two parameter of the D-RUSLE model, that change with the time, were considered: precipitation (R-Factor) and land cover (C-Factor). As far as the R-factor is concerned, different scenarios of climate change have been considered: eight combination of Global Circulation Model (GCM) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP). To perform this analysis data from Himalayan Adaptation, Water and Resilience (HI-AWARE) were used. To evaluate the future evolution of the C-Factor a neural network was trained using two different land cover maps, representing the situation in 1990 and 2010. The land cover maps were provided by International Center for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD).

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