Urban Change Detection in Tirana, Albania (2000-2025) Using Remote Sensing and Open Geospatial Data

Tirana, the capital of Albania, has experienced rapid urbanization over the past two decades, driven by political, social, and economic transformations. This fast and often chaotic growth has led to significant changes in land use, urban expansion, and environmental conditions. Uncontrolled urbanization presents major challenges for sustainable city development, requiring a comprehensive understanding of urban change dynamics. This study analyzes the spatial and temporal dynamics of urban change in Tirana from 2000 to 2025, using open geospatial data and satellite image processing techniques to map and examine transformations in land cover and urban development.
To assess land cover changes, the study utilizes high-resolution satellite imagery from Landsat and Sentinel-2, which provides valuable information on the spatial extent of urbanization and land use transformations over the past two decades. Additionally, open data from Urban Atlas is integrated to enhance classification accuracy and enable a more detailed analysis of land cover changes. Open data from sources such as the State Authority for Geospatial Information in Albania (ASIG) is also used to validate the results, ensuring that findings reflect actual changes on the ground and providing a comparison with existing datasets.
The methodology of this study is based on change detection techniques, which are essential for understanding urban growth. Key indices such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) are used to monitor vegetation loss, while the Normalized Difference Built-up Index (NDBI) is applied to track the expansion of built-up areas. These indices help quantify land cover changes by distinguishing between urban areas, vegetation, and other land uses. NDVI is particularly useful for detecting vegetation loss, often associated with urban sprawl and land degradation. Similarly, NDBI serves as an effective indicator for monitoring the increase in built-up areas, a crucial aspect of urban expansion.
The study employs a supervised classification approach to categorize land cover into different classes using the Random Forest algorithm. This machine learning technique has proven effective in classifying land cover with high accuracy, especially in complex landscapes such as urban areas. The Random Forest algorithm combines multiple decision trees to classify pixels in satellite imagery, allowing for the differentiation of urban, vegetation, water, and other land use types. By ensuring a high level of classification accuracy, the study provides a reliable assessment of urban changes in Tirana over time.
Beyond analyzing past urban growth, the study also aims to predict future urban development trends. To achieve this, the MOLUSCE plugin in QGIS is used to model future urban growth patterns based on historical data and influencing factors such as population growth, infrastructure expansion, and policy interventions. The MOLUSCE tool enables the prediction of land use changes and urban expansion over time, helping to outline future development scenarios in Tirana. Population data from the Albanian Institute of Statistics (INSTAT) is integrated into the analysis to better understand the driving factors behind urban change. This data provides insights into population growth trends, a key driver of urbanization, and their interaction with other urban development factors.

The results of this study provide a comprehensive analysis of urban change in Tirana, offering valuable insights into the city's transformation from 2000 to 2025. The study highlights the extent of uncontrolled urbanization, vegetation loss, and the expansion of built-up areas, which are characteristic features of rapid urbanization. These findings are crucial for urban planning and policy development, as they offer a data-driven foundation for understanding the drivers of urban growth and the challenges associated with managing it. The results can aid in designing sustainable urban development strategies, helping policymakers and urban planners better anticipate and manage future growth, mitigate negative environmental impacts, and improve the quality of life for city residents.
Also, methodology and findings of this study have broader applications beyond Tirana. The approach used can be applied to other cities experiencing similar urbanization patterns, providing a valuable tool for urban planners, researchers, and policymakers globally.

By leveraging open geospatial data and advanced satellite image processing techniques, this study not only contributes to the FOSS4G community's efforts to understand urban change but also enhances the overall sustainability and informed management of urbanization. The methodology applied here is a prime example of how open geospatial data can improve urban research, as it facilitates the accessibility, transparency, and reproducibility of urban analyses. Through the use of freely available resources, the study significantly improves land cover change detection, reinforcing the growing body of research emphasizing the importance of open data in addressing global urbanization challenges.

Furthermore, the availability of open data empowers local communities to actively participate in the urban planning process, fostering public awareness and engagement. By making data accessible, the study strengthens social cohesion and builds trust between citizens and authorities, facilitating better-informed decision-making that contributes to the sustainable development of cities.

This paper explores the integration of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) technologies into an architectural design course, focusing on a case study located 12 kilometers outside Tirana, Albania, in the rural area of Picar, near the Gjokaj artificial lake. The project involves fourth-year architecture students who are tasked with designing a vineyard that is tightly integrated with the surrounding landscape, while also offering scenic views towards the newly developing Autostrada axis. The site presents a unique opportunity to explore the intersection of architecture, landscape, and infrastructure, but it also poses significant challenges due to the limited availability of high-resolution geospatial data.
The paper highlights the students' journey in addressing the challenges of working with limited geospatial data, leveraging open-source software such as QGIS and OpenTopography datasets to bridge data gaps. From initial data acquisition to its application in design development, students critically engage with the available data, exploring its potential and limitations while developing strategies to overcome constraints. The vineyard design is envisioned as a harmonious dialogue between the built environment and the natural landscape, emphasizing the site's visual and experiential qualities. Panoramic views toward the Autostrada axis and the mountains beyond play a central role in shaping the students' design proposals, reflecting a deep integration of the project with its surrounding context. The use of open-source tools not only provides an accessible platform for learning but also underscores the importance of collaborative and resourceful approaches in design education.
Architectural education often overlooks the significance of GIS data and its availability, despite its critical role in understanding and coordinating different scales of impact—from the granular details of a site to its broader regional context. GIS tools enable architects to analyze spatial relationships, environmental factors, and infrastructural networks, fostering a more informed and holistic design process. By integrating GIS into the curriculum, this project demonstrates how architectural education can better equip students to address complex, multi-scalar challenges, bridging the gap between design innovation and data-driven decision-making. This approach not only enhances the students' technical skills but also cultivates a deeper awareness of the interconnectedness of design, landscape, and infrastructure.
In addition to the technical aspects of the project, the paper also presents qualitative surveys conducted with the students to assess their experience with GIS technologies and their perception of its value in architectural design. The surveys reveal insights into the learning curve associated with QGIS, the challenges of working with limited data, and the potential of GIS to enhance spatial thinking and design decision-making. Furthermore, the paper documents the dialogue between the academic team and local authorities, highlighting the importance of collaboration and advocacy in making geospatial data more accessible for educational and research purposes.
Architecture at the periphery of the built environment often relies on globally collected data, as local information may be scarce or incomplete. This global data provides practitioners with a more informed starting point, enabling them to design solutions that are better attuned to the specificities of the context. By leveraging such data, architects can uncover unique opportunities to create designs that respond thoughtfully to the landscape, infrastructure, and cultural dynamics of the site, even in resource-constrained settings.
The findings of this study underscore the transformative potential of GIS in architectural education, particularly in contexts where data availability is limited. By integrating GIS into the design studio, students are not only exposed to new tools and methodologies that traditionally remain outside the horizons of architectural education but are also encouraged to think critically about the relationship between architecture, landscape, and data. The project demonstrates that even in resource-constrained environments, GIS can play a crucial role in shaping design processes and outcomes. Moreover, the study highlights the need for greater accessibility to high-resolution geospatial data in Albania and the broader region, as well as the importance of fostering partnerships between academic institutions and government agencies to support data-driven design and research.
The paper contributes to the growing body of literature on the integration of GIS technologies in architectural education, offering a case study that is both context-specific and broadly applicable. It provides a model for how GIS can be used to enhance site analysis, design development, and spatial thinking in architecture, while also addressing the challenges of working with limited data. The project serves as a testament to the potential of GIS to transform architectural practice and education, particularly in regions where the availability of geospatial data is still evolving. Through this exploration, the paper advocates for the continued integration of GIS into architectural curricula and for the development of more robust data infrastructure to support design and research in the built environment.
The integration of GIS into architectural education emphasizes the importance of interdisciplinary collaboration in tackling contemporary design. By merging insights from geography, environmental science, and urban planning, students gain a broader understanding of site dynamics and context. This approach not only enriches the design process but also prepares students for cross-disciplinary teamwork.
Acknowledgements: The authors would like to acknowledge the support of Albanian State Authority for Geospatial Information (ASIG), Polis University of Tirana and the collaboration of Krist Andon and Kejsi Como who were lecturers in the architectural design course.