2026-09-02 –, Ran1
Somaliland’s electricity network lacks integration, relying on fragmented private grids with limited capacity and high losses. Modeling and simulations analyzed current and future network scenarios, identifying growth constraints and network inefficiencies. Future plans recommend structured upgrades, improved transmission, and better coordination among providers to meet increasing demand efficiently.
The approach for the modelling and simulations of the existing and future networks of Hargeisa are presented as follows:
1. Model of the existing networks
2. Simulate of the main existing MV networks (3 main ESPs)
3. Design the future sub-transmission network (132/33 kV substations and 132 kV lines) in an optimal way considering the existing and future load centers, as well as future power plants.
4. Design the future distribution network in an optimal way considering the existing network of ESPs, voltage conversion, and the integration to the sub-transmission network.
5. Model the future distribution and sub-transmission networks (5 years and 10 years).
6. Simulate the future networks to evaluate network problems (overloads and under voltages) and review the design and model accordingly.
In our demand forecasting process for Hargeisa, due to the specific data constraints encountered, as mentioned above, we opted for the Traditional Method, specifically using an Extrapolation approach. This method primarily relies on historical consumption and generation data to predict future demand, which was data available to the consultant. It calculates the 'average' growth rate over a specified period to project future demand.
After CPCS completed data collection, as described above, we observed monthly trends over the two year time period of our dataset and identified no notable anomalies. The minimum energy demand was recorded in either February (SomPower) or March (Indho Power). Our analysis revealed a modest increase of 3% in energy usage for Indho Power, whereas SomPower experienced a 12.4% rise, and TEC saw a significant increase of 25.1%. Considering the varying customer bases of each Energy Service Provider (ESP), the total energy production growth in Hargeisa from 2021 to 2022 was approximately 10.8%. For Mansoor Power, which serves 1,570 customers, we estimated a conservative energy generation of around 920 MWh. Similarly, for Gaafane, with an assumed customer base of 5,000, the energy generation was projected to be around 2,900 MWh.
PyPSA and Pandapower were the two tools used
Caroline is a Spatial Data Scientist with CPCS supporting transportation planning efforts in Africa