BEGIN:VCALENDAR VERSION:2.0 PRODID:-//pretalx//talks.osgeo.org//QBP83H BEGIN:VTIMEZONE TZID:CET BEGIN:STANDARD DTSTART:20001029T040000 RRULE:FREQ=YEARLY;BYDAY=-1SU;BYMONTH=10 TZNAME:CET TZOFFSETFROM:+0200 TZOFFSETTO:+0100 END:STANDARD BEGIN:DAYLIGHT DTSTART:20000326T030000 RRULE:FREQ=YEARLY;BYDAY=-1SU;BYMONTH=3 TZNAME:CEST TZOFFSETFROM:+0100 TZOFFSETTO:+0200 END:DAYLIGHT END:VTIMEZONE BEGIN:VEVENT UID:pretalx-foss4g-2022-academic-track-QBP83H@talks.osgeo.org DTSTART;TZID=CET:20220826T141500 DTEND;TZID=CET:20220826T144500 DESCRIPTION:Urban sprawl is associated with negative environmental impacts such as the loss of habitat and the loss of most fertile soils for agric ulture. The hinterland of Cologne\, Germany is facing these challenges. Th e area is expected to face a population increase by 200\,000 inhabitants i n the next twenty years. Given past development trends\, this population i ncrease will have to be mainly absorbed by the cities and villages in the hinterland. While this provides ample economic opportunities\, negative im pacts on ecosystems as well as on agriculture have to be assumed due to ur ban sprawl and increasing fragmentation. The region is known as as one of the most productive agricultural regions in Central Europe. As highest fer tile soils are located in the direct neighborhood of existing settlements\ , urban sprawl will lead to strong trade-offs with agricultural production .\nThe aim of the scientific project NACHWUCHS is to identify alternatives to the continuation of existing development patterns. Therefore\, we deve loped a baseline land use model and compare it to scenarios that assume di fferent brownfield development activities. Stakeholder involvement is at t he core of the project\, as policies for alternative pathways cannot be su ccessfully implemented without the support by farmers\, real estate compan ies\, environmental stakeholder \, the municipalities and the district adm inistration. The most important aspect of land use change in the region is the allocation of new housing areas. This is modeled by a tool-chain base d on a free software stack\, that uses PostgresSQL with a Postgis extentio n\, Python and QGIS. The allocation model for new housing areas is current ly based on a random forest classifier that has been trained on the offici al governmental ATKIS vector land use data set. The predictors of the mode l included distance to public transport and social infrastructure as well as existing land use development plans. The allocation of new housing area s was limited to areas outside of protected areas. Furthermore\, only a fe w land use classes – mainly agriculture – were allowed for the allocat ion of new housing areas. The distance-based predictors were calculated by the openrouteservice\, which uses OpenStreetMap data to build the routing graph and to assign routing weights.\nA 100 by 100m vector grid was used for model training and prediction. Model performance was evaluated based on a split in test and training data that considered spatial relationships . Based on the suitability of the grid cells the demand for projected new housing areas was allocated. We used nine scenarios that differed in the building density for new housing areas as well as by the extent of brownf ield development . In the study presented\, building density is expressed in residential units per hectare. Residential units per hectare is simpli fied as the number of flats in a building. In the simulated scenarios\, t hree density classes (10\, 30 and 50 residential units per hectare) and th ree different proportions of brownfield development (10\, 20 and 40 per ce nt) were combined. In the simulated period from 2018 to 2040\, we had an a rea increase of more than fifty percent between the scenario with the lowe st density and the lowest proportion of brownfield development and the sce nario with the highest density and the highest proportion of brownfield de velopment . The results of the allocation procedure was evaluated based on a set of indicators which cover environmental\, agricultural and social a spects. Examples are the supply of agriculture related ecosystem services\ , soil fertility\, economic value of agricultural production and hemeroby. We used the Open Data of the State of North Rhine-Westphalia\, which conta ined geodata for the relevant domains economy\, environment and nature co nservation\, agriculture\, social affairs and transport. The data are Insp ire-compliant and available under a free licence (DL-DE->Zero-2.0) . T he data set further allowed the evaluation of the model results with rega rd to the consequences of the flood disaster of the 14th July 2021\, which severely affected parts of the hinterland of Cologne. \nOur results will be used in the context of a mission statement for the future regional dev elopment\, developed together with locals stakeholders. The mission statem ent defined development goals for four sub-regions derived by socio-econo mic and environmental properties based on 17 UN SDGs. With the help of the above-mentioned indicators\, we will evaluate how close or how far the re sults of the different scenarios are to these goals and assist local sta keholders\, e.g. in the search for locations of new residential areas. A t ransfer of the model to regions with similar settings is possible as long as suitable data is available for retraining the model and for the estimat ion of the indicator sets\, highlighting again the importance of open data . The ATKIS data used is openly available for some of the federal states o f Germany but not beyond. For North-Rhine Westphalia a transfer semms reas onable- Test runs based on the CORINE land use / land cover product lead t o comparable results\, indicating that this might be a suitable replacemen t for the ATKIS based land use information.The Python code of the model\, the necessary scripts to generate the required postgisdatabase\, a QGIS pr oject example for the visualisation of the results as well as a set of tra ining and test data are provided under free licence via a Gitlab repositor y. DTSTAMP:20260517T153521Z LOCATION:Room Modulo 3 SUMMARY:How to grow? -Modeling land use change to develop sustainable pathw ays for settlement growth in the hinterland of Cologne\, Germany - Mirko B linn URL:https://talks.osgeo.org/foss4g-2022-academic-track/talk/QBP83H/ END:VEVENT END:VCALENDAR